Oct 13, 2021
Voter Survey Results Summary: Karen Bass in Strong Position to Lead LA Mayoral Primary
Karen Bass starts the race in a very strong position. She is the best known and best liked candidate in the field. She starts with 26% of the vote and moves to 34% after all respondents heard positive profiles of all the candidates – this gets her to the level of Eric Garcetti’s first place finish in the 2013 Mayoral primary and Antonio Villaraigosa’s in 2005(33% for each) She holds the bulk on her favorables on the initial vote and gets more of the initial undecideds on the vote after the profiles. Her support is broad – spanning ideology, age, gender and geography. Most notably, Bass leads De Léon among Latinos two-to-one (28% to 14%) after the profiles (it is a dead heat in the initial vote with Bass 16% and De Léon 14%). Bass dominates among White Democrats after the profiles (45% with De Léon next at 12%).
Unless a high-profile political figure from the left joins the field, it seems that Bass is very likely to make the runoff – absent a significant negative campaign against her. Caruso and De Léon seem to be slightly better positioned to make the runoff with Bass than the other candidates we tested but certainly, it is a wide-open race. While there isn’t a very large constituency for an outsider candidate (31% prefer an outsider with business experience while 52% prefer a candidate with significant government experience) Caruso seems to be better positioned to win that group, which could give him an advantage in making the runoff. Similarly, Buscaino could try to push his zero-tolerance on encampments among the minority (36%) of voters who prefer a candidate who will outlaw encampments but he’s a councilmember when most voters disapprove of the council’s job performance and he is from such an isolated part of the city. Obviously, Caruso’s ability to spend massively is a factor that must be considered
De Léon – whether in the primary or runoff – would need to draw a sharp contrast with Bass which seems difficult given their similarities on the issues and their backgrounds. It’s notable that he loses 18% of his initial voters to Bass after the profiles and another 7% move to undecided; fully one-quarter of his support. He is in a surprisingly difficult position.
Feuer seems to have no clear path as his support among White Democrats did not increase after the profiles and left him at 6% among them, an extremely distant third, as indicated above.
Beutner seems to be in no-man’s land – too much recent government history to be an outsider but not an elected official with a base.
This is an odd electorate. Only a third of voters think the city is headed in the right direction, but there is little appetite for substantial change. I suspect that the partisanship that dominates our politics is causing Democrats to remain loyal to party stalwarts and their policies. Were this an off-year election, we might see a more change-oriented election. Bass is uniquely well-positioned for this race as a well-known mainstream Democratic figure who is not a part of City government.
June 1, 2019
PRESS RELEASE
Working Californians Launches New TV and Radio Ad Campaign in Los Angeles
Highlights High Cost of Mayor Garcetti’s Green New Deal
LOS ANGELES —Working Californians (WCA) unveiled new television and radio ads that will begin airing in Los Angeles today. The commercials underscore the high cost and impacts of Mayor Eric Garcetti’s recent Green New Deal policy proposal. The campaign, supported by a seven-figure ad buy, launched just a day after Working Californians debuted a similar digital campaign in San Francisco at the California Democratic Party State Convention.
As the housing crisis and homelessness worsen, Garcetti’s Green New Deal would eliminate thousands of jobs and raise power rates on local families. Garcetti’s new “green” taxes will worsen traffic, drive up the cost of gasoline, and come straight out of the wallets of millions of hard-working Angelenos.
“Many Angelenos live paycheck to paycheck and the cost of Garcetti’s proposals will have devastating consequences for Los Angeles families. Our coalition supports smart policies that will transition the City’s reliance on fossil fuels but these policies must protect middle-class jobs and everyday working people,” WCA spokesperson Michael Trujillo said.
The ads can be viewed here. Copies of the scripts follow below.
About Working Californians
Working Californians (WCA) is a not-for-profit research and advocacy organization made up of a diverse coalition of labor and community leaders, public policy experts and everyday working people. WCA works to create opportunities for business owners, local governments and labor unions to forge strong and mutually beneficial partnerships to rebuild Los Angeles.
For more information visit www.workingcaliforniansresearchfund.com and www.affordabilityla.org.
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Television
Jake Tapper SOTU clip: Tapper: “Homelessness is nearly up 50% in your city since you became Mayor according to the LA Times…”
Jake Tapper SOTU clip: Garcetti: “This is what people say is an unsolvable problem and I’m committed to solving it.”
Remember when Eric Garcetti pledged to END homelessness in LA?
A billion of our tax dollars spent and the crisis is worse than ever.
Now he wants “green” taxes on LA drivers and utility rate hikes on local families.
Let’s pump the brakes on Garcetti’s new taxes.
The only thing green will be money coming out of our wallets.
RADIO
If you’re hearing this, chances are you’re stuck in traffic.
Now Eric Garcetti wants to make it worse.
Adding new “green” taxes on drivers.
Driving the price of gas even higher.
And replacing middle class jobs with low paying temporary labor.
LA gets more expensive.
Homelessness is worse than ever.
And Garcetti is back for more?
Let’s pump the brakes on Garcetti’s new taxes.
The only thing green will be money coming out of our wallets.
DIGITAL
Remember when Eric Garcetti pledged to end homelessness in LA?
Now he’s back with new “green” taxes that will make LA more expensive and the housing crisis even worse.
Let’s pump the brakes on Garcetti’s new taxes.
The only thing green will be money coming out of our wallets.